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Severe Weather Outlook and Weather Updates.

Dec. 5-9 Forecast Overview

Updated Dec 5, 2022

It’s a chilly start to the week, but ultimately will be a nice Monday. That doesnt last long, as the next system arrives later tonight into Tuesday. Just a few very isolated spots in Interior / Northern PA and Upstate NY could see brief freezing rain at the onset, but all in all this will just be a rainy system across the region, all the way into Canada. This system is slow to clear, with scattered showers lingering into Wednesday as well. These will be more common in New England, more isolated into the mid-Atlantic.¬†

High pressure nudges in for Thursday. That will dry things out, and brings marginally cooler air in that may be just cool enough for some wintry weather as the next system arrives later Friday. We’ve been tracking this for about a week now, and have been favoring a southern-tracking low pressure with marginal temps. That same thought process remains, though to be honest, confidence isn’t all that much higher just yet. For instance, here is a comparison between the GFS and some other models, just 5 days away.¬†Ultimately, we’d monitor things from NW NJ to much of PA to N/W MD. Once you get to I-95, the odds for any wintry weather is quite low. And once you go further north into New England, the odds for any precipitation is low. We’ll update on Winter Risk each day as it gets closer. Beyond that, the -NAO pattern is beginning to show it’s hand, which will likely lead to an active and stormy pattern headed into the middle and latter part of the month.